Five Dismal Economic Indicators for 2010

The past two years have been punishing for businesses and consumers, probably the most painful years since the Great Depression. Things CAN ONLY IMPROVE in 2010, don’t you think?

Not so fast. We yearn, in our heart of  hearts, to return to the comfortable status quo ante. Let the good times roll! Can’t we all share the good fortune of the Wall Street bankers? The stock market has already bounced back faster and higher than anyone could have predicted! Let’s see how fast we can re-inflate housing prices, and the credit bubble, and retirement savings. And of course, good jobs for everybody.

Ignore the truth that irrational financial bubbles led to the economic crisis in the first place.  Experts now claim the recession is over. They may be technically correct.  But this, my friends, is a phony recovery. Just my opinion.  The odds are stacked against a general economic recovery.

Real Estate, Unemployment, Consumer Spending

SIGN OF THE TIMES: This store is at the corner of Montgomery Village Avenue and Clopper Road.

Who can predict the future? Not me. Instead, I will indulge in some idle speculation about economic indicators we might — or might not — see in 2010.

1. More vacant retail space, and a general oversupply of commercial real estate. Small businesses and large dealer networks are going on a bitter diet. During a prolonged downturn, businesses at first trim their sails and try to ride out the storm. Now that Christmas is past, you’ll see companies giving up. Chains large and small will close their unprofitable locations. Some names will disappear forever. Goodbye, Pontiac, it’s been nice to know you.  Goodbye Saturn, goodbye Saab.
2. Are residential real estate values nearing a bottom? Maybe, maybe not. One thing is certain, the real estate industry projects that foreclosure sales will not peak until at least the second half of 2010. Interest rates will be resetting on billions of dollars of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). The number of ARM resets will increase throughout 2010 and 2011, according to reliable industry reports. Absent a government bailout, some homeowners will not be able to afford their mortgage payments after the interest resets. It looks like the supply of houses for sale at distressed prices is going to be increasing for a while.
3. Meanwhile, demand for housing is a bit flat. This is the era of Generation X, the age cohort born between 1965 and 1979, with the number of births bottoming out in 1973 through 1977.  Generation X is aged 30 to 44, a prime age for first-time home buyers. But Gen X is a smaller group than the Baby Boomers.  Gen X represents about 48 million folks, and a lot of them already own houses or condos. Not to worry. Coming along right behind is the larger cohort born between 1980 and 1995, known as the Millennials, or Generation Y.  Millennials — 74 million strong — are expected to generate big demand for houses in a few  years. But right now they are age 14 to 29. Many of them are still in high school and college. Unfortunately, Gen Y faces a tight job market at present, and a lot of them are moving back in with their parents. (Thanks to my sister, Eileen Criggar,  for explaining the generational demographics to me.)
4. Unemployment may be leveling off at about 10 percent. Most of the obvious layoffs have been taken. Now businesses and government agencies are digging in to save what’s left. 2009 was the year of the hiring freeze; 2010 will be the year of the salary deep freeze. We’re not talking about only a freeze on raises. Based on anecdotal reports, I’m thinking companies will be making across-the-board salary cuts. The unpaid furlough days for teachers and government workers already seem less like extra days off, and more like pay cuts.
5. Hoping for a bounce-back in consumer spending? Not too likely. First, consumers are already staggering under credit-card debt, and recent graduates are stuck with tuition debt. Second, there is no reason to believe that the jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 are coming back — ever. We live in a flat-world economy, with a worldwide oversupply of labor. Just my opinion.

Leading Indicator? Try The Dollar Menu

Long story short, it all adds up to  one less restaurant meal here, one less treat for the kids there, one less frivolous pleasure everywhere. We’re not going to send the kids to school without shoes, but we can live without the piano lessons this year. And cigarettes, can you believe what we’re spending on cigarettes?

Pizza delivery is out. The McDonald’s dollar menu is in. We can still afford cereal for breakfast — Which kind is on sale this week?

– Bernie Hayden

New Year’s Penguin Swim, Ocean City, MD, Jan. 1, 2010, on the Beach @ 91st St.

Some people really did frolic in the Atlantic surf for a few minutes on New Year's Day, last year, Jan. 1, 2009. This hardy group is playing under the watchful eyes of the U.S. Coast Guard.

The 16th annual New Year’s Day Penguin Swim in Ocean City, Maryland, the 2010 edition, will fall on Jan. 1, 2010.  Yep, that’s Friday, the day after New Year’s Eve.

Hard to believe, but hundreds actually plunge into the Atlantic Ocean in the middle of winter, as a fund-raiser for Atlantic General Hospital. The swim will take place on the beach in front of the Princess Royale Hotel, at 91st St. Registration is at noon and the swim is at 1 p.m.  For details, click on http://www.atlanticgeneral.org.

Last Jan. 1, 2009, we had bright sunshine and moderate winter temperatures, and little or no wind in Ocean City. In other words, perfect conditions for the Penguin Swim. A crowd of literally hundreds rushed into the surf, children first, so they wouldn’t get trampled, and then adults. Most turned around and ran right back out, but some stayed a little longer to savor the  experience.

In addition to the participants, an equally large crowd of bundled-up spectators watched from the beach. After the Penguin Plunge, everyone went into the Princess Royale atrium to warm up and get some refreshments.

As a photographer, I found it easier to take pictures of the spectators, who at least stood still, than the Penguin Swim participants, who tended to run quickly into and out of the water.

Winterfest In Ocean City, Christmas 2009

The Winterfest sign at the foot of the Harry Kelly Bridge welcomes visitors to Ocean City.

Brightly lighted Christmas trees highlight the Winterfest sign.

It’s Winterfest in Ocean City, with decorations on the bridge and along the Baltimore Avenue median from 14th Street to 33rd Street. The big hotels are open and have extravagantly decorated lobbies.

Of course the big Winterfest excitement is at the Northside Park, 125th Street and the bay, where you can view a dazzling Christmas wonderland every evening, including Christmas Eve and Christmas, through Jan. 2. Ride the Winterfest train, sip hot chocolate, and see Santa, too. Admission is $4.

No Winterfest display this year at the Inlet Parking Lot, in the spirit of budget austerity, but I think the displays at 125th Street are better than ever.

I have quite a few more good Winterfest photos. Hope to get them processed and posted, eventually. Right after Christmas, I’ll be posting photos from last year’s Atlantic General Hospital New Year’s Day Penguin Swim.

The new, improved version of Maryland On My Mind is as ready as I can make it. With luck, it will go live between Christmas and New Year’s.

Merry Christmas to All!

Michael Steele, Republican Leader

People back home in Maryland are so proud.

Top 21 Baltimore Snowstorms, 1891-2009

Here is the previous list of top-20 snowfalls for Baltimore. Source: Frank Roylance’s Maryland Weather Blog. You can always see the latest feed from Mr. Roylance’s blog at the top of the sidebar on the right.

This past weekend’s snowstorm, Dec. 18-19, 2009, now becomes the No. 7 storm on the list, with 21.1 inches of snow measured at BWI Airport.  It is also the all-time record for the month of December in Baltimore. Here’s hoping that the new December record will stand for many years to come.

1	28.2 inches … Feb. 15-18, 2003	11	14.1 inches … Dec. 11-12, 1960
2	26.5 inches  … Jan. 27-29, 1922	12	13.1  inches … Feb. 11-12, 2006
3	22.8 inches … Feb. 11, 1983	13	13.0  inches … Mar. 5-7, 1962
4	22.5 inches … Jan. 7-8, 1996	14	12.3 inches … Jan. 22, 1987
5	22.0 inches … Mar. 29-30, 1942	15	12.1 inches … Jan. 30-31, 1966
6	21.4 inches … Feb. 11-14, 1899	16	12.0 inches … Feb. 16-18, 1900
7	20.0 inches … Feb. 18-19, 1979	17	11.9 inches … Mar. 13-14, 1993
8	16.0 inches … Mar. 15-18, 1892	18	11.7 inches … Feb. 5-8, 1899
9	15.5 inches … Feb. 15, 1958	19	11.5 inches … Dec. 17-18, 1932
10	14.9 inches … Jan. 25, 2000	20	11.5 inches … Mar. 21-22, 1964

A December Snowfall for the Maryland History Records

It’s official. Baltimore received 21.1 inches of snow in the winter snowstorm that roared up the Interstate-95 corridor Friday and Saturday. Almost all the snow in Maryland fell on Saturday, Dec. 19, 2009, which otherwise would have been one of the biggest shopping days of the year.

You can tell your grandchildren that you lived through the deepest pre-Christmas snow in Maryland. The 21.1 inches by far beat the old December record for Baltimore, 14.9 inches in 1960.

You can read a full, in-depth report on all-time previous snow records in Baltimore at Frank Roylance’s Weather Blog, including the top 20 snowstorms since 1891. The December 2009 storm will now move into seventh-place on the all time list.

Today marks the Winter solstice, shortest day of the year. (And we’ve probably already experienced our biggest snow storm for the winter.)

It comes as no surprise to lifelong Marylanders that only two of the previous top-20 snows were in December, in 1960 and 1932. We rarely have significant snowfalls before Christmas in Maryland.

The month of February leads the list with eight of the top-20 storms, and January is next with five storms. What may surprise some is that five of the all-time snows hit in March!

Of the previous top-20 storms, 16 recorded a foot or more of snow. But only seven topped 20 inches. This past weekend’s storm makes eight storms with over 20 inches of snow since 1891. (That’s fewer than one 20-inch storm per decade.)

In Ocean City, we had a gale warning in effect during the storm, with gusts over 35 mph, but we received hardly any snow accumulation. And most of that snow melted on Sunday.

The weekend’s storm was an economic bust for Christmas shopping. It will be interesting to see how much of that buying switched to the Internet.

Does this month’s record snowstorm mean we’re inoculated against another big snow this winter? Statistically speaking, it would be unlikely to have two top-20 storms in the same year. It’s never happened before, since 1891.

The distribution of the top-20 snows over the 14 decades since 1891 shows some statistical anomalies. The 1960s and the 2000s had more than their share of the big ones. There were four top-20 storms in the 1960s, and five in nine years, from 1958 to 1966! But all of those 1960s storms were in the second tier, with no more than 15.5 inches of snow.

This December’s storm is the fourth big snowstorm since Y2K. The 2000s also have the all-time record snow for Baltimore, 28.2 inches in February 2003. — Bernie Hayden

Heavy Snow Shutting Down Maryland, Update 3:15 p.m., 12-19-2009

A windy snowstorm is shutting down the middle of Maryland on Saturday from the Chesapeake Bay through Montgomery and Frederick Counties. The heaviest snow is not in the Western Maryland mountains, as is usually the case, but in the Baltimore-Washington corridor. Lighter snow on the Eastern Shore.

The massive snowstorm is roaring north along the Interstate-95 corridor, from Richmond to Washington to Baltimore to Philadelphia. Forecasters are expecting record-breaking snowfalls of 20 to 30 inches throughout the Baltimore-Washington region. The northern part of the Eastern Shore could get 12 to 20 inches. In the Mid-Eastern Shore, six to 12 inches, and only one to five inches on the Southeastern Shore.

The rain just turned to snow in West Ocean City, 3:35 p.m. Saturday.

Maryland will have a white Christmas this year. This storm will likely break all previous records for December snowstorms in Maryland. Our most recent comparable snows were in the months of January and February.

• Feb. 2003, 28.2 inches
• Jan. 1996, 22.5 inches
• 1983, 22.8 inches.

Most shopping malls in the Baltimore area closed at 1 p.m. Saturday afternoon — possibly the busiest shopping day of the year — to give shoppers and employees time to get home before the snow gets even deeper. The anchor department stores will make their own calls on when to close. Snow is falling at a rate of one inch an hour throughout Central Maryland Saturday afternoon and evening.

Gov. Martin O’Malley has declared a state of emergency and the National Guard is ready to provide transportation assistance to police and medical emergency crews. Emergency plans restricting parking on major routes are in effect everywhere.

Gov. O’Malley said state highway crews are focusing on keeping the interstate highways open. The interstate ramps are the most treacherous spots, along with bridges. Marylanders are being urged to stay off the highways so the plows and emergency vehicles can operate. However, Gov. O’Malley said he has no plans to shut down the Interstates at this time.

Temperatures are 25 to 30 degrees in middle Maryland. State officials are expecting the wind to pick up later this afternoon, causing increased drifting. But winds are remaining below the blizzard threshold, which is 35 mph.

BWI Airport and Dulles International Airport are reported operating, but only with a few flights. Reagan National Airport is closed until 6 a.m. Sunday morning.

The Chicago Bears were unable to fly into Baltimore on Friday evening as planned. The Bears are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens at 4:15 p.m. Sunday.

The storm will begin to taper off in Maryland late tonight and Sunday morning.

In Ocean City, we had rain and high wind all night, this morning, and early afternoon. Light snow has now started in West ocean City, and the wind continues to blow. No major problems reported with the morning high tide. My thermometer in West Ocean City says 32 degrees at 3:15 p.m. Saturday.

Great skiing reported at Wisp Resort (22 degrees and 12 inches of new snow) in Western Maryland and Ski Liberty (14 inches) in Pennsylvania.

– Bernie Hayden

Ocean City Winter Weather Update, 12-19-2009

No snow in Ocean City, Maryland, Saturday morning. Rain all day. Gale warning, winds 25 to 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph. Heavy surf. Possible coastal flooding. Temperature at 9:35 a.m.: the TV says 42 in Ocean City; my thermometer in West Ocean City says 38. It isn’t at all unusual to have a difference of several degrees between Atlantic Avenue (the Boardwalk) and Golf Course Road in West OC.

They’re still saying we might get three to five inches of snow here tonight. We’ll see. The predicted low is around 30. I’d say the chances for a white Christmas on the Eastern Shore are about the same as a snowball’s chances in . . .  Any accumulation we have on the Shore will likely melt before Christmas.

It’s a different story, on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. Lots of Snow throughout that part of Maryland. They say there’s plenty of snow for skiing in Western Maryland, near Deep Creek Lake. There usually is, during the winter. Plenty of snow in the mountains from Western North Carolina through Pennsylvania. It’s not Vermont, and it’s not Aspen. But hey, have fun!

A White Christmas For Maryland

In November, a damaging, slow-moving tropical-storm-turned-nor’easter drenched the South and the East Coast, causing flooding and significant beach erosion from North Carolina to Ocean City, Maryland, and Delaware.

Now, in December, we’re going to experience a winter version of that storm, again moving South to North, with heavy rain in the South, and heavy snow from the North Carolina mountains through much of Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and north. Winds will likely be strong enough to cause near-blizzard conditions in some areas.

We don’t get a whole lot of snow here in Maryland, and rarely any measurable snow before Christmas. Winter doesn’t even begin, officially, until Dec. 21. In the typical year, Maryland gets several dustings of snow, and one or two snowfalls in the six- to eight-inch range. Some winters, we have hardly any snow at all.  And about once every nine years or so, Maryland experiences a whopper snowstorm, a foot or more, the kind of snowstorm that brings our busy lives to a full stop for one or two days.

Personally, I think it’s great to be forced to stay in one place for a couple of days, to be reminded that life goes on without frantic work. Of course, sometimes I find a way to resist. One blizzard hit about four days before my monthly deadline in the late 1980s, and I carried an armful of work home and edited right through the storm. These days, I suppose folks can keep working from home via the Internet. Of course, the first thing most people think about is: “How long will it take to dig out the car?”

Our last really severe winter was in January and February 1996, if my memory is correct. I was commuting from Westminster, MD, to a newspaper in York, PA. One storm, I think in January, shut the region down for three days. Officials in Pennsylvania declared an emergency and made it illegal for anyone to be on the highways except emergency personnel — doctors, nurses, police, fire-fighters, and highway crews. During that storm, when home delivery was impossible, the newspaper activated its Web site for the first time.

In 1996, I lived at the end of a long cul-de-sac, with a small hill. Snow plows couldn’t reach us, so the neighbors pitched in to shovel snow. Nevertheless, we were stuck. The way out was impassable. On the third day, the city of Westminster sent in a big snowplow to plow us out. The snowplow got stuck in front of my house. I’m not making this up. The city had to send a bulldozer to free the snowplow.

Carroll County and Frederick County and points west make up the snow belt in Maryland. Folks out there are going to get buried this weekend. Two feet or more snow in the mountains of Western Maryland, and 18 inches to two feet in Frederick and Carroll. Same thing for the entire Baltimore and Washington region, 18 inches to two feet.

Most of the Eastern Shore might get enough snow for a white Christmas, one to four inches. Here in Ocean City and Worcester County, in the far southeastern corner of Maryland, we’re looking at very little snow.  Snow Hill might get enough for a white Christmas. But I believe we’re more likely to have rain than snow in OC.  The sky certainly looked like snow all day, but I’ve been thinking it’s not cold enough for snow here.

A bank sign on the Coastal Highway said 43 degrees at 3 p.m. On the coast, the warmer ocean water provides a moderating influence for weather. It’s usually colder on the interior of the Shore.

In West Ocean City after dark, the bank sign said 36 degrees. At 8 p.m., the television reported 37 degrees in Ocean  City. The thermometer on my back porch in West Ocean City read 32 degrees at 8 p.m. About an hour later, it’s up to 35.  The ground isn’t frozen. In other words, it’s cold enough for snow, but just barely. And if we have any snow in OC, it will melt when it hits the ground. That’s my prediction. Saturday’s high temp will be nearly 40 degrees.

But snow is only part of the weather equation on the coast. In Worcester County, we have a gale warning, coastal flood warning, and high surf advisory for Saturday. High tides will be around 9:30 a.m. and 9 p.m. Saturday.

Winds are expected to top out at 25 to 35 mph on Saturday, not nearly as high as in the November storm. The major concern is beach erosion, following the erosion in November. Fortunately, this winter storm won’t be pounding the coast for an extended period. By Sunday afternoon, our snow, if any, will be over. — John Hayden

Ehrlich vs. O’Malley? Read All About It

Over at Maryland Politics Watch, Adam Pagnucco is up to Part 5 in his series “Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley?”

Five parts!? It’s an in-depth analysis, complete with lots of voter stats. Mr. Pagnucco is famous, in Maryland political circles, for his multi-part series. Maryland Politics Watch coverage is far more comprehensive than anything in the MSM (mainstream media) in Maryland.

With late-night drama in the U.S. Senate on defense and health care, and drama at the Copenhagen summit on climate change, it’s easy to ignore Maryland politics. But Maryland is where you and I live every day. What happens in Maryland politics has more impact on our daily lives than what happens in Washington or Copenhagen.  Health care and climate change are crucial in the long run. But if we don’t make it through today, right where we live, we won’t get to the long run.

I highly recommend Adam’s series on Ehrlich and O’Malley.  Please start reading with Part 1, here.

And now, back to the time-consuming work of trying to create a new and improved version of my own blog.

– Bernie Hayden